THE TECHNOGENOUS WAY OF A CIVILIZATION DEVELOPMENT IS NOT SO TERRIBLE
The actual theme of present - theme of androids and cyborgs is not new to a public. One of corner questions of the near future - are the mental abilities and creativity - human monopoly?
It seems that already is not. December 6, 2006 the champion of the world in chess, Russian Grand Master Vladimir Kramnik has conceded of the newest (tenth) version of the computer program " Deep Fritz " by the results of a six rounds opposition. In the RYA News report about this occasion was spoken: " The Computer already from the very beginning has refused standard debuts, having taken the initiative in center. With development of active events "Fritz" did not hurry and gave to Kramnik time to build a defense. However when the massive attack of the computer began on 47th move, Russian Grand Master was compelled to recognize the defeat ".
Up to this duel it was possible to win or to play till the standoff with artificial intelligence. "Deep Fritz" counts of 8 millions positions per second, the machine is already capable to think 9 chess moves forward. And it"s not yet the end! At least, 2006 is announced as the year after which the man will never beat the chess artificial intelligence.
So, the futurist Nick Bostrom in his book "How Long Before Superintelligence?" writes: "The human brain contains about 10^11 neurons. Each neuron has about 5*10^3 synapses, and signals are transmitted along these synapses at an average frequency of about 10^2 Hz. Each signal contains, say, 5 bits. This equals 10^17 ops. The fastest supercomputer today (December 1997) is 1.5 Terraops, 1.5*10^12 ops. Moore"s law says that we will have to wait until about 2015 or 2024 (for doubling times of 12 and 18 months, respectively) before supercomputers with the requisite performance are at hand".
The future of a civilization by the futurists is represented as two models: "dictatorships of fear" by Orwell or Bradbury and "dictatorships of happiness" by Huxley. To consequences of scientific progress refer social conformism, problem of formation of the disciplined behavior of masses and unforced subdual, economic need for mass consumption of this or that product of a civilization by Erich Fromm ("The Sane Society"), neuropharmacologic control of a societies described by Aldous Huxley ("Brave New World") and Francis Fukuyama ("Our Posthuman Future"). The social control over a society (biotechnology in political reactions of masses) already dynamically develops. This global abusing by psychotropic substances, narcotics and strong alcoholic drinks. Aldous Huxley writes about the "Bokanovsky"s" conveyor for cloning and prenatal (post-genomic) modification of fetuses and about the total neuropharmacologic control by the "Soma" tablets under the motto’s "there is always soma, delicious soma, half a gramme for a half-holiday, a gramme for a week-end, two grammes for a trip to the gorgeous East, three for a dark eternity on the moon". About this reasons also known modern behaviourist Francis Fukuyama: "The political prescience of the other great dystopia, Brave New World, remains to be seen. Many of the technologies that Huxley envisioned, like in vitro fertilization, surrogate motherhood, psychotropic drugs, and genetic engineering for the manufacture of children, are already here or just over the horizon. But this revolution has only just begun; the daily avalanche of announcements of new breakthroughs in biomedical technology and achievements such as the completion of the Human Genome Project in the year 2000 portend much more serious changes to come. Human nature shapes and constrains the possible kinds of political regimes, so a technology powerful enough to reshape what we are will have possibly malign consequences for liberal democracy and the nature of politics itself". Fukuyama expects occurrence of such state mechanism connected to mass consumption of psychotropic substances, as the social control. Even without psychotropic substances it is possible to take an alcohol easily accessible to the consumer also promoting additional production of "neuromediator of happiness". The generation "Next" all over the world today chooses strong spirits drinks. The market share of strong spirits drinks grows fifth year: in 2001 it was 28,7 %, in 2006 - 32,8 %. Counter-strike for this is global accustoming development prevention in the population to those or other substances influencing mentality is the creation of special frame similar to American FDA (Food and Drug Administration). In USA the FDA is the megaregulator of the consumer market, solves a problem of biotechnological influence on the people and global harm to health of the population, complicating rules in all consumer markets. The Ministry of public health and social development of Russia during work about the "Concept of creation single control frame in sphere of manufacture and market of products presenting potential danger to the man " develops questions for formation of a Federal service for survey of safety of substances of medical purpose and foodstuff. "Dictatorship of happiness" by means of mass change of the population mentality by accustoming to abusing by alcohol, narcotics, tranquilizers, antidepressants and psychostimulants - most negative way of social development.
The man mostly lives not in biosphere but in noosphere. That we discuss relates to concept of the "noosphere evolution". The same as in fauna in which the evolutionary processes occur not only passively but also actively (struggle for new habitation) so in noosphere - society should not only passively "view" a way of the transformation but also actively form the necessary laws of noosphere. Essence of the man consists of constant competition, game of ambitions, struggle for the superiority, show "I" of the own personality - "Homo Ludens" by Johan Huizinga: ""We play and know that we play, hence we are more than merely reasonable beings, for play is unreasonable". Brain force - driving force of mankind. Having created artificial intelligence the mankind will compete with it until find the way to resist it. In technogenous ways of evolution the man will always create to itself a new "toys". Therefore this way of a civilization development isn"t so terrible as if a society will be allowed to use the pharmacological suppression of mentality. Because then the mankind will stand on a way to the degradation of political institutes and destruction of a civilization.